Bid:Offer Ratios Point to a Market Still in Buyers’ Favour

Recent data from Liv-ex confirms that the fine wine market remains advantageous for buyers, even as bid:offer ratios begin to recover from last year’s lows.

The bid:offer ratio compares the total value of active bids (buyers’ interest) to the total value of offers (wines listed for sale). A ratio of 1.0 typically signals a balanced market, with buyers and sellers evenly matched. Readings above 1.0 often precede rising prices; readings below 1.0 suggest that sellers hold less power and may be forced to lower prices.

Ratios Rising but Still Below Parity

In October the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 posted a bid:offer ratio of 0.70. That is the highest level since April 2023 and well above the 0.54 recorded just one month ago. Similar gains were seen across other key indices, including the Italy 100 at 0.63 and the Champagne 50 at 0.51.

This improvement suggests that demand is returning to the market. Yet with all major indices still below 1.0, buyers retain the upper hand. Liv-ex modelling indicates that the Fine Wine 100 is likely to drift a modest 0.6% lower over the next two months, highlighting that the rally in demand has not yet translated into price strength.

Uneven Recovery Across Regions

The rebound in ratios is not evenly spread. Regions such as Bordeaux and Burgundy continue to lag, posting current ratios of just 0.30 and 0.32 respectively. This leaves sellers in these segments more exposed to discounting pressures, and presents selective opportunities for well-timed acquisitions.

By contrast, indices with ratios closer to 0.7 are showing early signs of stabilisation. Should demand continue to build and approach parity with supply, price softness may begin to diminish.

Opportunity for Disciplined Collectors

For collectors and investors, the message is clear: the market remains buyer-friendly, but the window of most attractive pricing may narrow if demand continues to firm. Those with a long-term view and a disciplined acquisition strategy may find this an opportune moment to secure rare vintages or diversify portfolios before ratios climb further.