Fine Wine in 2025: Reading Between the Lines of the Liv-ex Market Report

 

The first half of 2025 has been anything but calm for the fine wine market. According to the latest Liv-ex data, the Fine Wine 100 Index has already fallen 4.4% year-to-date, closing H1 at 311.6 — well below the level most experts predicted. Optimism in early Q1 quickly gave way to uncertainty, as politics, tariffs, and pricing pressures reshaped global demand.

At Rue Pinard, we read these shifts not as setbacks but as signals: understanding them helps collectors, restaurants, and trade professionals position themselves for opportunity.

What happened in H1 2025?

  • US buyers pulled back – A threatened 200% tariff in March caused an overnight retreat of American purchasing power. This hit hardest in regions like Piedmont, the Rhône, and Spain, where US demand usually supports the market.

  • Bordeaux En Primeur faltered – A weak campaign, combined with a stronger Euro, forced aggressive pricing cuts. Recent vintages (2020–2022) are now trading at their lowest-ever levels.

  • Divergence inside Bordeaux – The Bordeaux Legends 40 (mature vintages) held relatively firm, down only 2.6%, while the Bordeaux 500 dropped 5.6%. Older, corrected vintages showed resilience; young releases continued to slide.

  • Italy split in two – Tuscany proved more stable, with Super Tuscans down only 1.3%, while Piedmont fell 5.6%, largely due to reduced US buying.

  • Trading volume up – Despite falling prices, trade volumes rose 11.9% compared with H2 2024, proof that collectors and merchants remain active when they see value.

What does this mean for collectors?

  1. Liquidity matters – Even in downturns, wine changes hands. Being connected to a global network (Liv-ex, Wine-Searcher, Cru Marketplace) allows collections to move instead of stagnate.

  2. Provenance is protection – In turbulent markets, verified storage and authenticity are key. Bonded storage ensures bottles retain trust and value until conditions stabilize.

  3. Older vintages shine – Mature Bordeaux is proving more resilient than flashy new releases. Stability often lies in bottles with proven history.

  4. Regional shifts are opportunities – Tuscany’s strength, compared to Piedmont’s softness, highlights the importance of knowing when to pivot portfolios.

Outlook for H2 2025

The road ahead depends on clarity. Tariff policy in the US remains uncertain, but once resolved, American buyers will need to replenish stock. Asia, meanwhile, has quietly returned, with spending up 55% compared to late 2024. Demand is there — it just waits for the right prices and conditions.

As the Liv-ex report concludes: the market is closer to its floor than its peak. For those positioned with access, liquidity, and patience, H2 could be a turning point.

Rue Pinard’s Take

Our role is to make sure clients don’t just watch the market — they participate in it with confidence.

  • Access to over 20,000 wines and a live market of £100m+ opportunities.

  • Transparency through real-time pricing.

  • Security via bonded storage hubs in Europe, Asia, and the US.

  • Personal guidance to help collectors and restaurants navigate volatility.

Markets rise and fall. Provenance, access, and flexibility endure. That is where Rue Pinard stands.
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